"The GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,160, up 80 points before the opening bell."
That single data point, flashing across trading terminals early Monday morning, set the tone for what would become a resounding comeback for Indian equities.
Just three trading sessions earlier, on Friday, June 19, the Sensex had tumbled 607 points to close at 76,802.90, while the Nifty slipped 155 points to settle at 24,013.10—snapping a five-session winning streak that had seen both benchmarks gain nearly 5%. IT stocks had borne the brunt of the sell-off after Accenture trimmed its revenue growth guidance and flagged weak demand visibility, raising concerns about global IT spending.
But Monday told a different story.
The Numbers That Matter
By 9:23 a.m., the Sensex had jumped above 400 points to trade at the 77,200 mark, while the Nifty 50 gained around 100 points to trade at the 24,100 level. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 407.12 points to 77,210.02 in early trade, while the 50-share NSE Nifty surged 114.75 points to 24,129.95.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank and HCL Tech were among the major winners. Reliance led the charge, up 2.13%, while tech majors Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and HCL Tech climbed 1.29%, 1.15%, and 1.08% respectively. Cipla topped the IT list, rising 1.98%, followed by Tech Mahindra at 1.66% and Infosys at 1.33%.
The optimism was broad-based. All sectoral indices were trading in the green, with Nifty IT rising more than 1% to lead gains. The Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices gained more than 0.4% each. Around 1,916 stocks advanced and 583 declined on the NSE.
On the losing side, Titan, IndiGo, Grasim Industries, Bharti Airtel, and Adani Ports were among the top laggards. Power Grid shares fell around 0.6% to lead losses on the Sensex.
The Geopolitical Chessboard
What made Monday's rally particularly interesting was the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil.
The US and Iran had agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days, following two days of talks at the Swiss resort of Burgenstock, according to a joint statement issued by mediators Pakistan and Qatar. The update helped calm investor nerves after US President Donald Trump had threatened fresh strikes on Iran, even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal.
However, the situation remained fluid. Reports emerged that an Iranian delegation had walked out of peace talks in Switzerland following renewed threats from Trump. Iran announced it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about a fifth of global oil supply—citing Israeli and US violations of the interim peace deal.
Yet the markets chose to focus on the positive. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded 1.50% lower at $79.36 per barrel. "Despite the confusing news coming from the West Asia talks, Brent crude is trading below $80," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. "This market signal indicates that further flare-up in the conflict is unlikely. However, the situation remains fluid and has to be watched closely".
The IT Sector's Redemption
The IT sector's rebound was particularly noteworthy. Just days earlier, technology shares had come under intense pressure after Accenture trimmed its revenue growth guidance and flagged weak demand visibility. The Nifty IT index had been the top sectoral loser the previous week, shedding 1%.
But on Monday, IT stocks led the charge. HCL Tech, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra shares were the top gainers on the Sensex, rising nearly 1% each. The Nifty IT index rose over 1% to lead sectoral gains.
"The sharp fall on Friday wiped off a significant portion of investors' wealth," noted analysts. Monday's rebound was significant for sector watchers.
The FPI Story: A False Dawn?
Foreign portfolio investors bought Indian shares worth Rs 4,859.07 crore on Friday—the highest daily inflow since early February. The figure sparked optimism among retail investors.
But here's the catch: experts are urging caution.
"The FPI buy figure of Rs 4,859 crore on Friday is due to the FTSE rejig and, therefore, is not indicative of any trend," cautioned VK Vijayakumar. In fact, FPIs have sold shares worth Rs 43,044.09 crore so far in June (till 19 June 2026), following cash sales of Rs 55,963.33 crore in May, Rs 70,135.46 crore in April, and a staggering Rs 122,540.41 crore in March.
The real story? Domestic institutional investors have been cushioning the FII sell-off. On Friday, while FPIs bought, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,159.64 crore.
What the Experts Are Saying
Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic.
"We are of the view that the short-term market outlook remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies would be ideal for traders," said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities. He identified crucial support zones for the Sensex at 76,200 and 75,900, with resistance at 77,300–77,900.
For the Nifty, analysts see support at 23,900 and 23,800, with resistance in the 24,200–24,250 zone. "Overall, the technical setup remains constructive despite short-term profit booking. As long as Nifty holds above the crucial support zone of 23,800, the broader bullish trend is likely to remain intact," said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals at Motilal Oswal, noted that options data suggests a broader trading range between 23,500 to 24,500, with an immediate range between 23,800 to 24,200.
The Rupee Factor
The rupee has been quietly strengthening—a trend that analysts believe could continue. From a low of 96.96 to the dollar reached on May 20, the rupee has appreciated to 94.32.
"This is a positive trend and is likely to continue, given the sharp correction in crude prices and the expected big capital flows, particularly from FCNR(B) deposits," Vijayakumar noted.
Global Markets: A Mixed Bag
Asian markets presented a mixed picture. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9%, having climbed almost 8% last week to all-time highs. South Korea's Kospi added 2.6%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.0%. Chinese blue chips were flat.
US markets were closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday. However, Thursday's strong rally in the Nasdaq and S&P 500—led by semiconductor stocks—continued to provide a positive undertone.
"The global cues remain supportive at the start of the week," said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct.
What Investors Should Watch
As the week unfolds, market participants will be keeping a close eye on:
US-Iran peace talks – Any setback could send crude prices soaring again.
Federal Reserve signals – The mounting risk of a Fed rate hike looms large.
FPI flows – Will Friday's buying be a one-off or the beginning of a trend?
Crude oil prices – Brent trading below $80 is a key comfort zone for markets.
Rupee movement – A stronger rupee could attract more foreign capital.
The Final Verdict
Monday's rally was a textbook case of markets oscillating between hope and fear. Hope, in the form of easing crude prices and progress in West Asia talks. Fear, in the form of geopolitical uncertainty and sustained FPI outflows.
As one analyst put it: "The market momentum is now in the mid and small caps assisted by superior earnings growth potential. Bank Nifty is fundamentally strong and deserves calibrated accumulation".
For now, the bulls are back in control. But in a market driven by geopolitics and oil prices, the only certainty is uncertainty.
